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Fakel Voronezh vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
4/24/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 38Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Fakel Voronezh45%
×Draw30%
Volgar Astrakhan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.20
Volgar Astrakhan
0.82

Fakel Voronezh creates 46% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 76 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.16
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.72
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
75%
Fakel Voronezh or Volgar Astrakhan
70%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
55%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
20%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
70%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
34%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
12%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
56%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
20%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
64%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.16 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
45%
level
30%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
25%

Fakel Voronezh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel Voronezh vs Volgar Astrakhan

Fakel Voronezh and Volgar Astrakhan drew 1-1 in First League on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.