Volgar Astrakhan vs Dinamo Bryansk

Volgar Astrakhan

Preview

15:00

Dinamo Bryansk

10/23/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 15Tsentralnyi Stadion

47%

Volgar Astrakhan

model favours

47%28%25%

Dinamo Bryansk are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

42%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan47%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Bryansk25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.87

Volgar Astrakhan

1.30

Dinamo Bryansk

0.87

Volgar Astrakhan creates 49% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

1.04

creates per match

1.11

0.63

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.04

Dinamo Bryansk

1.11

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

0.63

Dinamo Bryansk

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

75%

Volgar Astrakhan or Dinamo Bryansk

72%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

53%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

22%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

73%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

37%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

58%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

22%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

65%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.04 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.11 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

47%

level

28%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

25%

Volgar Astrakhan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Volgar Astrakhan score first in only 27% of matches
Dinamo Bryansk score first in only 27% of matches
Both teams score in only 33% of Volgar Astrakhan’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Astrakhan

DWWWL

Bryansk

WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff