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Volgar Astrakhan vs Dinamo Bryansk — First League 2018

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
3/24/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan50%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Bryansk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
1.35
Dinamo Bryansk
0.79

Volgar Astrakhan creates 71% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 21 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
0.99
Dinamo Bryansk
0.48

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.09
Dinamo Bryansk
1.71

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
78%
Volgar Astrakhan or Dinamo Bryansk
72%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
50%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
24%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
74%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
39%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
55%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
19%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
70%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
50%
level
28%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
22%

Volgar Astrakhan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Volgar Astrakhan 2–1 Dinamo Bryansk

Volgar Astrakhan beat Dinamo Bryansk 2-1 in First League on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom in Astrakhan'.