Dinamo Bryansk 0–1 Volgar Astrakhan: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Volgar Astrakhan

9/27/2020

First League · Round 12Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk31%

×Draw30%

Volgar Astrakhan39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.11

Dinamo Bryansk

0.97

Volgar Astrakhan

1.11

Volgar Astrakhan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 76 away

0.71

creates per match

0.93

1.29

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.71

Volgar Astrakhan

0.93

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.29

Volgar Astrakhan

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

61%

Dinamo Bryansk or Volgar Astrakhan

70%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

69%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

11%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

62%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

25%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

7%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

67%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

30%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

45%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.97

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

31%

level

30%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

39%

Volgar Astrakhan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff