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Volgar Astrakhan vs Chertanovo Moscow — Cup 2019

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
I. Zuev 66'
D. Lesnikov 38'
A. Khomyakov 3'
8/20/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundTsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan47%
×Draw26%
Chertanovo Moscow27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
1.50
Chertanovo Moscow
1.08

Volgar Astrakhan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.50
Chertanovo Moscow
1.17

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.50

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
73%
Volgar Astrakhan or Chertanovo Moscow
74%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
53%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
23%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
78%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
44%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
19%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
66%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
29%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
63%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.50 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.17 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
47%
level
26%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
27%

Volgar Astrakhan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Khomyakov
38'
D. Lesnikov
66'
I. Zuev

Statistics

VolgarChertanovo
Discipline
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs Chertanovo Moscow

Volgar Astrakhan beat Chertanovo Moscow 2-1 in Cup on August 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Khomyakov (3'), D. Lesnikov (38'), I. Zuev (66').

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Astrakhan.