Volgar Astrakhan 1–0 Chertanovo Moscow

Volgar Astrakhan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chertanovo Moscow

Y. Pugachev 86'

9/13/2020

First League · Round 9Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan39%

×Draw27%

Chertanovo Moscow33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.15

Volgar Astrakhan

1.28

Chertanovo Moscow

1.15

Volgar Astrakhan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 53 away

1.01

creates per match

1.21

1.09

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.01

Chertanovo Moscow

1.21

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.09

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

67%

Volgar Astrakhan or Chertanovo Moscow

73%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

61%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

18%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

72%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

37%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

14%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

68%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

32%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

54%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.01 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.28

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

39%

level

27%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

33%

Volgar Astrakhan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

N. Zamaliev

21'

D. Redkovich

27'

Y. Zhuravlev← I. Khomukha

32'

A. Mendel

46'

E. Rudkovskiy← D. Velikorodny

51'

A. Zenin

55'

A. Gasilin

58'

A. Butenko← A. Gasilin

62'

Y. Gudkov

72'

A. Bolonin← D. Vorobjev

76'

D. Kornyushin← A. Berdnikov

86'

L. Gerchikov

86'

Y. Pugachev← N. Zamaliev

86'

Y. Pugachev

87'

I. Molteninov← L. Gerchikov

89'

N. Suleymanov

90+1'

A. Zenin

90+1'

A. Zenin

Volgar

Chertanovo

81

13

3

4

19

66

5

21

▼

Velikorod

68

▼

11

6

22

4

5

▼

Khomukha

77

▼

Berdnikov

33

▼

14

18

69

9

▼

Gasilin

78

▼

Vorobjev

8

Sagitov

Manager: V. Panov

27'▲Y. Zhuravlev←▼I. Khomukha

58'▲A. Butenko←▼A. Gasilin

72'▲A. Bolonin←▼D. Vorobjev

76'▲D. Kornyushin←▼A. Berdnikov

86'▲Y. Pugachev←▼N. Zamaliev

Volgar Astrakhan substitutes

27Zhuravlev71Butenko11Bolonin3Kornyushin10Pugachev29Karpov30Saganovich

Manager: A. Dmitriev

46'▲E. Rudkovskiy←▼D. Velikorodny

87'▲I. Molteninov←▼L. Gerchikov

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

10Rudkovskiy28Molteninov14Saveljev30Lyakhov46Pershin55Radionov93Molodnyakov

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs Chertanovo Moscow

Volgar Astrakhan beat Chertanovo Moscow 1-0 in First League on September 13, 2020.

Goals: Y. Pugachev (86').

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom in Astrakhan'.

Volgar Astrakhan vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs Chertanovo Moscow