Volgar Astrakhan 1–2 Chelyabinsk: Result & Stats

Volgar Astrakhan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Chelyabinsk

S. Zuykov 37'

N. Goldobin 67'

A. Pomerko 18'

8/11/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 4Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan33%

×Draw31%

Chelyabinsk36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchChelyabinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.03

Volgar Astrakhan

0.97

Chelyabinsk

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

1.04

creates per match

1.44

0.63

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.04

Chelyabinsk

1.44

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

0.63

Chelyabinsk

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Chelyabinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

64%

Volgar Astrakhan or Chelyabinsk

69%

Draw or Chelyabinsk

67%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

12%

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

62%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

25%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

7%

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

64%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

28%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

48%

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.04 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Chelyabinsk attack 1.44 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

33%

level

31%

Chelyabinsk scores more

36%

Chelyabinsk at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

19'

37'

43'

55'

59'

V. Gorbachik← I. Gruznov

66'

A. Pavlishin← D. Smirnov

66'

D. Mironov← A. Pogosov

67'

N. Goldobin

70'

K. Kertanov← N. Goldobin

70'

G. Levin← D. Pushkarev

73'

E. Tatarinov← D. Anosov

79'

R. Vazitdinov← A. Nosov

82'

A. Shcherbakov← A. Bakhtiyarov

84'

I. Zuev

85'

S. Loskutov

Volgar

Chelyabinsk

1

2

44

63

66

20

⚽

Pomerko

37

Kosyanchu

11

▼

Nosov

97

⚽

▼

Goldobin

36

▼

Gruznov

15

▼

Pushkarev

99

Smirnov

58

Zuev

23

⚽

Zuykov

56

Loskutov

27

Gorovykh

11

▼

Bakhtiyar

10

▼

Smirnov

77

Druzhinin

69

▼

Anosov

17

Lesnikov

24

▼

Pogosov

Manager: D. Klyuev

66'▲A. Pavlishin←▼D. Smirnov

66'▲D. Mironov←▼A. Pogosov

73'▲E. Tatarinov←▼D. Anosov

82'▲A. Shcherbakov←▼A. Bakhtiyarov

Volgar Astrakhan substitutes

7Pavlishin88Mironov9Tatarinov90Shcherbakov1Yampolskiy3Tagiev6Krivokhizhin

Manager: R. Pilipchuk

59'▲V. Gorbachik←▼I. Gruznov

70'▲K. Kertanov←▼N. Goldobin

70'▲G. Levin←▼D. Pushkarev

79'▲R. Vazitdinov←▼A. Nosov

Chelyabinsk substitutes

33Gorbachik18Kertanov70Levin7Vazitdinov17Ulyanovskiy21Pakhomov22Pokotylo23Rybikov47Furman74Stanislavchuk