Chelyabinsk 1–0 Volgar Astrakhan: Result & Stats

Chelyabinsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Volgar Astrakhan

V. Khozin 90+6'

10/6/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 12Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chelyabinsk40%

×Draw27%

Volgar Astrakhan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelyabinskExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.15

Chelyabinsk

1.30

Volgar Astrakhan

1.15

Chelyabinsk creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

1.56

creates per match

1.19

1.11

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Chelyabinsk

1.56

Volgar Astrakhan

1.19

allows per match

Chelyabinsk

1.11

Volgar Astrakhan

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw

67%

Chelyabinsk or Volgar Astrakhan

73%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

60%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

18%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

73%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

37%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

14%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

68%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

32%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

55%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.56 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.30

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.19 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more

40%

level

27%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

33%

Chelyabinsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

D. Anosov← E. Krivokhizhin

69'

K. Kertanov

71'

R. Vazitdinov← G. Levin

71'

D. Pokotylo← D. Pushkarev

71'

I. Gruznov← V. Gorbachik

72'

D. Smirnov← I. Druzhinin

79'

N. Goldobin← R. Vazitdinov

82'

N. Prudnikov← A. Bakhtiyarov

82'

A. Shcherbakov← A. Pogosov

86'

88'

88'

90'

90'

90+8'

90+6'

Chelyabinsk

Volgar

99

Smirnov

58

Zuev

18

Volkov

6

▼

Krivokhiz

7

Pavlishin

27

Gorovykh

11

▼

Bakhtiyar

77

▼

Druzhinin

17

Lesnikov

24

▼

Pogosov

88

Mironov

1

Zadiraka

2

⚽

44

63

66

20

18

11

▼

Nosov

70

▼

Levin

33

▼

Gorbachik

15

▼

Pushkarev

Manager: R. Pilipchuk

71'▲R. Vazitdinov←▼G. Levin

71'▲D. Pokotylo←▼D. Pushkarev

71'▲I. Gruznov←▼V. Gorbachik

79'▲N. Goldobin←▼R. Vazitdinov

90+8'▲K. Furman←▼A. Nosov

Chelyabinsk substitutes

7Vazitdinov22Pokotylo36Gruznov97Goldobin47Furman4Mironov13Tushin23Rybikov37Kosyanchuk74Stanislavchuk90Lyakh

Manager: D. Klyuev

63'▲D. Anosov←▼E. Krivokhizhin

72'▲D. Smirnov←▼I. Druzhinin

82'▲N. Prudnikov←▼A. Bakhtiyarov

82'▲A. Shcherbakov←▼A. Pogosov

Volgar Astrakhan substitutes

69Anosov10Smirnov19Prudnikov90Shcherbakov1Yampolskiy3Tagiev9Tatarinov

Match Recap: Chelyabinsk vs Volgar Astrakhan

Chelyabinsk beat Volgar Astrakhan 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 6, 2024.

Goals: V. Khozin (90+6').

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Chelyabinsk.

Chelyabinsk vs Volgar Astrakhan — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chelyabinsk vs Volgar Astrakhan