Chelyabinsk 0–0 Volgar Astrakhan: Result & Stats

Chelyabinsk

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Volgar Astrakhan

D. Pokotylo 120+4' (pen)

G. Levin 120+3' (pen)

V. Uljanovskiy 120+2' (pen)

A. Sokolov 120+1' (pen)

O. Dmitriev 120+3' (pen)

I. Matyushenko 120+2' (pen)

6/28/2025

League #1061 · Promotion - Play Offs - Finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chelyabinsk49%

×Draw25%

Volgar Astrakhan26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelyabinskExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.06

Chelyabinsk

1.56

Volgar Astrakhan

1.06

Chelyabinsk creates 47% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Chelyabinsk

1.33

Volgar Astrakhan

1.00

allows per match

Chelyabinsk

1.11

Volgar Astrakhan

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw

74%

Chelyabinsk or Volgar Astrakhan

75%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

51%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

25%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

79%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

46%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

21%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

65%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

29%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

65%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.33 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.00 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more

49%

level

25%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

26%

Chelyabinsk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

S. Zuykov← I. Khomukha

62'

E. Proshkin

65'

K. Kertanov

66'

I. Galanin

66'

D. Pushkarev← D. Pushkarev

68'

D. Melnikov← D. Burkin

68'

A. Pavlishin← I. Galanin

76'

I. Matyushenko← A. Bakhtiyarov

76'

D. Mironov← D. Mironov

79'

B. Rogochiy

84'

86'

90'

96'

97'

V. Gorbachik← V. Gorbachik

99'

I. Druzhinin← A. Pogosov

120+1'

Missed penalty

120+1'

A. SokolovPenalty

120+2'

I. MatyushenkoPenalty

120+2'

V. UljanovskiyPenalty

120+3'

O. DmitrievPenalty

120+3'

G. LevinPenalty

120+4'

Missed penalty

120+4'

D. PokotyloPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff