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Volgar Astrakhan vs Chayka — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
1 – 1
Chayka
Chayka
2/3/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Susesi Sport Center A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan37%
×Draw22%
Chayka40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
1.72
Chayka
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
2.43
Chayka
2.00

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.57
Chayka
1.00

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
60%
Volgar Astrakhan or Chayka
78%
Draw or Chayka
63%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
19%
Chayka wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
82%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
51%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
25%
Chayka 1+ goals
83%
Chayka 2+ goals
53%
Chayka 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
48%
Chayka (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Chayka away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 2.43 + Chayka defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Chayka attack 2.00 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
37%
level
22%
Chayka scores more
40%

Chayka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Volgar Astrakhan 1–1 Chayka

Volgar Astrakhan and Chayka drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Susesi Sport Center A in Belek.