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Chayka vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2026

Chayka
Chayka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
8/22/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Chayka36%
×Draw29%
Volgar Astrakhan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.14
Volgar Astrakhan
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 78 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.04
Volgar Astrakhan
0.92

allows per match

Chayka
1.36
Volgar Astrakhan
1.23

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
64%
Chayka or Volgar Astrakhan
71%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
64%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
15%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
68%
Chayka 2+ goals
32%
Chayka 3+ goals
11%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
68%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
32%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
50%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.04 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.92 + Chayka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chayka scores more
36%
level
29%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
36%

Chayka at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Chayka 2–1 Volgar Astrakhan

Chayka beat Volgar Astrakhan 2-1 in First League on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.