Volga Ulyanovsk 1–4 Urozhay: Result & Stats

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Urozhay

8/7/2022

First League · Round 4Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk35%

×Draw28%

Urozhay36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchUrozhay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.18

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.16

Urozhay

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

0.86

creates per match

0.92

1.43

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.86

Urozhay

0.92

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.43

Urozhay

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Urozhay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

64%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Urozhay

72%

Draw or Urozhay

65%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

15%

Urozhay wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

69%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

32%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

11%

Urozhay 1+ goals

69%

Urozhay 2+ goals

33%

Urozhay 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

49%

Urozhay (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Urozhay away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Urozhay defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

Urozhay attack 0.92 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

35%

level

28%

Urozhay scores more

36%

Urozhay at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff