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Urozhay vs Volga Ulyanovsk — First League 2018

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
11/27/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Urozhay36%
×Draw30%
Volga Ulyanovsk34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
1.09
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 34 away

creates per match

Urozhay
0.98
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.85

allows per match

Urozhay
1.23
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.21

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
66%
Urozhay or Volga Ulyanovsk
70%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
64%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
15%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
66%
Urozhay 2+ goals
30%
Urozhay 3+ goals
10%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
65%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
28%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
52%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.98 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.85 + Urozhay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Urozhay scores more
36%
level
30%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
34%

Urozhay at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urozhay vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Urozhay beat Volga Ulyanovsk 1-0 in First League on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.