Volga Ulyanovsk 1–0 Spartak Tuymazy: Result & Stats

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Tuymazy

Denis Rakhmanov 16'

10/17/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk66%

×Draw19%

Spartak Tuymazy15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchSpartak Tuymazy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.95

Volga Ulyanovsk

2.21

Spartak Tuymazy

0.95

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 133% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

1.71

creates per match

1.36

0.54

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.71

Spartak Tuymazy

1.36

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.54

Spartak Tuymazy

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Spartak Tuymazy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

85%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Spartak Tuymazy

81%

Draw or Spartak Tuymazy

34%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

42%

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

89%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

65%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

38%

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals

61%

Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals

25%

Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

81%

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.54 · 28 matches

Spartak Tuymazy away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.71 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.21

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.36 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

66%

level

19%

Spartak Tuymazy scores more

15%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Denis Rakhmanov

32'

B. Khaernasov

40'

F. Khabibullin

46'

V. Videneev← P. Vasiljev

46'

A. Dmitryuk← L. Mukhametshin

47'

I. Shalonikov

53'

I. Maksimenkov

63'

M. Denilkhanov

65'

R. Makhmutov← N. Muromskiy

65'

B. Bilalov← N. Supagin

69'

I. Belyakov← A. Kashtanov

69'

G. Uridia← M. Denilkhanov

74'

I. Maksimenkov

74'

I. Maksimenkov

79'

D. Daliev← A. Geryugov

79'

A. Zhugin← B. Khaernasov

89'

V. Solovey← V. Zhuravlev

Volga

Spartak

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Aitov

65'▲R. Makhmutov←▼N. Muromskiy

65'▲B. Bilalov←▼N. Supagin

69'▲I. Belyakov←▼A. Kashtanov

69'▲G. Uridia←▼M. Denilkhanov

79'▲D. Daliev←▼A. Geryugov

Volga Ulyanovsk substitutes

MakhmutovBilalovBelyakovUridiaDaliev

Manager: N. Khabibullin

46'▲V. Videneev←▼P. Vasiljev

46'▲A. Dmitryuk←▼L. Mukhametshin

79'▲A. Zhugin←▼B. Khaernasov

89'▲V. Solovey←▼V. Zhuravlev

Spartak Tuymazy substitutes

VideneevDmitryukZhuginSolovey

Match Recap: Volga Ulyanovsk vs Spartak Tuymazy

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Spartak Tuymazy 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 17, 2021.

Goals: Denis Rakhmanov (16').

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Spartak Tuymazy — Second League - Group 4 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Volga Ulyanovsk vs Spartak Tuymazy