Spartak Tuymazy 0–5 Volga Ulyanovsk: Result & Stats

Spartak Tuymazy

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Volga Ulyanovsk

A. Kashtanov 90+2', 80'

G. Uridia 52'

R. Makhmutov 17'

D. Daliev 15'

10/23/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion Spartak Tuymazy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spartak Tuymazy25%

×Draw22%

Volga Ulyanovsk54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak TuymazyExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.00

Spartak Tuymazy

1.29

Volga Ulyanovsk

2.00

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 55% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.86

creates per match

1.93

2.07

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Spartak Tuymazy

1.86

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.93

allows per match

Spartak Tuymazy

2.07

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Tuymazy ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Spartak Tuymazy or draw

46%

Spartak Tuymazy or Volga Ulyanovsk

78%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

75%

Winning margin

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+

10%

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals

72%

Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals

37%

Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals

14%

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

86%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

59%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)

31%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Tuymazy at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.86 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.93 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Spartak Tuymazy scores more

25%

level

22%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

54%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

8'

15'

17'

42'

46'

G. Uridia← M. Denilkhanov

52'

G. Uridia

56'

V. Zhuravlev

60'

P. Vasiljev← A. Dmitryuk

60'

B. Khaernasov← I. Badrtdinov

63'

A. Kashtanov← I. Belyakov

64'

N. Muromskiy← A. Geryugov

72'

T. Islamov← E. Pozdnyakov

72'

M. Zakirov← V. Zhuravlev

72'

A. Zhugin← D. Garifullin

75'

F. Khabibullin

75'

R. Tutaev← N. Supagin

77'

D. Malykhin← Dmitri Rakhmanov

80'

A. Kashtanov

88'

T. Islamov

90+2'

A. Kashtanov

Spartak

Volga

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Khabibullin

60'▲P. Vasiljev←▼A. Dmitryuk

60'▲B. Khaernasov←▼I. Badrtdinov

72'▲T. Islamov←▼E. Pozdnyakov

72'▲M. Zakirov←▼V. Zhuravlev

72'▲A. Zhugin←▼D. Garifullin

Spartak Tuymazy substitutes

VasiljevKhaernasovIslamovZakirovZhugin

Manager: R. Aitov

46'▲G. Uridia←▼M. Denilkhanov

63'▲A. Kashtanov←▼I. Belyakov

64'▲N. Muromskiy←▼A. Geryugov

75'▲R. Tutaev←▼N. Supagin

77'▲D. Malykhin←▼Dmitri Rakhmanov

Volga Ulyanovsk substitutes

UridiaKashtanovMuromskiyTutaevMalykhin

Second League - Group 4: Spartak Tuymazy 0–5 Volga Ulyanovsk

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Spartak Tuymazy 5-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 23, 2021.

Goals: D. Daliev (15'), R. Makhmutov (17'), G. Uridia (52'), A. Kashtanov (80', 90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Spartak Tuymazy in Tuymazy.

Spartak Tuymazy vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 4: Spartak Tuymazy 0–5 Volga Ulyanovsk