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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Rubin — First League 2018

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rubin
Rubin
8/21/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk23%
×Draw29%
Rubin48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.76
Rubin
1.25

Rubin creates 64% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.86
Rubin
1.06

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
Rubin
0.65

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
52%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Rubin
71%
Draw or Rubin
77%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
7%
Rubin wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
53%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
18%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
4%
Rubin 1+ goals
71%
Rubin 2+ goals
36%
Rubin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
32%
Rubin (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Rubin defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.76

Rubin attack 1.06 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
23%
level
29%
Rubin scores more
48%

Rubin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–2 Rubin

Rubin beat Volga Ulyanovsk 2-1 in First League on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.