Rubin 1–0 Volga Ulyanovsk: Result & Stats

Rubin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Volga Ulyanovsk

3/12/2023

First League · Round 22Kazan' Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rubin55%

×Draw25%

Volga Ulyanovsk21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RubinExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.90

Rubin

1.64

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.90

Rubin creates 82% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

2.06

creates per match

0.85

0.94

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Rubin

2.06

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.85

allows per match

Rubin

0.94

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rubin or draw

79%

Rubin or Volga Ulyanovsk

75%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

45%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+

30%

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals

81%

Rubin 2+ goals

49%

Rubin 3+ goals

23%

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

59%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

23%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)

73%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 2.06 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.64

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.85 + Rubin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rubin scores more

55%

level

25%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

21%

Rubin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff