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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
11/3/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 16Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk50%
×Draw24%
Rodina Moskva II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.71
Rodina Moskva II
1.18

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 45% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
2.22
Rodina Moskva II
1.24

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.11
Rodina Moskva II
1.20

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
74%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Rodina Moskva II
76%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
50%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
27%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
82%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
51%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
24%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
69%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
33%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
65%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 2.22 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.24 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
50%
level
24%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
26%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Volga Ulyanovsk 3–3 Rodina Moskva II

Volga Ulyanovsk and Rodina Moskva II drew 3-3 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.