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Rodina Moskva II vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
9/8/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 8Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rodina Moskva II43%
×Draw28%
Volga Ulyanovsk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.30
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.01

Rodina Moskva II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.72
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.33

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
0.68
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.89

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
71%
Rodina Moskva II or Volga Ulyanovsk
72%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
57%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
20%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
73%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
37%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
14%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
64%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
27%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
60%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.72 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.33 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
43%
level
28%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
29%

Rodina Moskva II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva II vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Rodina Moskva II beat Volga Ulyanovsk 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Rodina in Khimki.