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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Rodina Moskva — First League 2018

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
11/2/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Trud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk25%
×Draw27%
Rodina Moskva48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.92
Rodina Moskva
1.38

Rodina Moskva creates 50% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 68 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.86
Rodina Moskva
1.32

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
Rodina Moskva
0.97

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
52%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Rodina Moskva
73%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
75%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
9%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
60%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
23%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
7%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
75%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
40%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
35%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
25%
level
27%
Rodina Moskva scores more
48%

Rodina Moskva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volga Ulyanovsk vs Rodina Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat Volga Ulyanovsk 2-1 in First League on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Trud Stadium in Ulyanovsk.