Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rodina Moskva vs Volga Ulyanovsk — First League 2018

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
4/18/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rodina Moskva48%
×Draw28%
Volga Ulyanovsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.37
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.88

Rodina Moskva creates 56% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
1.53
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.85

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
0.91
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.21

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
76%
Rodina Moskva or Volga Ulyanovsk
72%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
52%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
23%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
75%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
40%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
16%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
59%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
22%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
67%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.91 · 68 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 1.53 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.85 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
48%
level
28%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
24%

Rodina Moskva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Rodina Moskva and Volga Ulyanovsk drew 0-0 in First League on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.