Volga Ulyanovsk 3–0 Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

11/16/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 18Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk59%

×Draw21%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchKhimik Dzerzhinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.17

Volga Ulyanovsk

2.11

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.17

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.22

creates per match

1.22

1.11

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

2.22

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.22

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.11

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

79%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Khimik Dzerzhinsk

79%

Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk

41%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

36%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

88%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

62%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

35%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals

69%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals

33%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

74%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 2.22 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.22 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

59%

level

21%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more

21%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff