Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3–1 Volga Ulyanovsk

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Volga Ulyanovsk

7/20/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 1Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk29%

×Draw27%

Volga Ulyanovsk43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik DzerzhinskExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.33

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.05

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.33

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.22

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.22

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.33

allows per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.33

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Dzerzhinsk ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Khimik Dzerzhinsk or draw

57%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk or Volga Ulyanovsk

73%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

71%

Winning margin

Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+

11%

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals

65%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals

28%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals

9%

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

74%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

38%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)

41%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.22 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.33 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more

29%

level

27%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

43%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff