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Volga Ulyanovsk vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
G. Uridia 66'
I. Mashukov 90' (pen)
A. Nikitin 78'
I. Bober 22'
D. Kokoev 3'
9/20/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Trud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk30%
×Draw28%
FK Neftekhimik42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.02
FK Neftekhimik
1.27

FK Neftekhimik creates 25% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 123 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.86
FK Neftekhimik
1.12

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
FK Neftekhimik
1.19

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
58%
Volga Ulyanovsk or FK Neftekhimik
72%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
70%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
11%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
64%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
27%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
8%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
72%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
36%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
41%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
30%
level
28%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
42%

FK Neftekhimik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
D. Kokoev
22'
I. Bober
42'
D. Shadrintsev← M. Sitdikov
46'
V. Rudenko← A. Murza
46'
K. Moiseev← S. Dzhamilov
46'
D. Sukhomlinov← D. Kokoev
65'
A. Khabibullin← M. Umnikov
65'
I. Gershun← O. Krasilnichenko
66'
G. Uridia
68'
A. Gutsa← E. Voronin
68'
V. Yakovlev← D. Kamenshchikov
69'
A. Nikitin←
73'
Kirill Moiseev
75'
I. Mashukov← R. Magomedov
78'
A. Nikitin
79'
Andrey Nikitin
90+6'
Vladimir Shaykhutdinov
90'
I. MashukovPenalty

Statistics

VolgaFK
Discipline
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0

First League: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–4 FK Neftekhimik

FK Neftekhimik beat Volga Ulyanovsk 4-1 in First League on September 20, 2025.

Goals: D. Kokoev (3'), I. Bober (22'), G. Uridia (66'), A. Nikitin (78'), I. Mashukov (90' pen).

The match was played at Trud Stadium in Ulyanovsk.