FK Neftekhimik 1–2 Volga Ulyanovsk: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Volga Ulyanovsk

11/2/2022

Cup · Regions Path - 5th RoundStadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Neftekhimik15%

×Draw23%

Volga Ulyanovsk62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.79

FK Neftekhimik

0.75

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.79

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 139% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.50

creates per match

1.57

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.50

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.57

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

2.00

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–213%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

38%

FK Neftekhimik or Volga Ulyanovsk

77%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

85%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

4%

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

53%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

17%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

4%

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

83%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

53%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

20%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 0.50 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.57 + FK Neftekhimik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

15%

level

23%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

62%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff