Volga Ulyanovsk 1–0 Chelyabinsk: Result & Stats

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chelyabinsk

I. Maksimenkov 79' (pen)

4/3/2022

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk41%

×Draw28%

Chelyabinsk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchChelyabinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.07

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.29

Chelyabinsk

1.07

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

1.71

creates per match

1.60

0.54

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.71

Chelyabinsk

1.60

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.54

Chelyabinsk

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Chelyabinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

69%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Chelyabinsk

72%

Draw or Chelyabinsk

59%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

19%

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

72%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

37%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

14%

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

66%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

29%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

57%

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.54 · 28 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.71 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chelyabinsk attack 1.60 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

41%

level

28%

Chelyabinsk scores more

31%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

D. Rakhmanov

11'

I. Maksimenkov

15'

A. Amelin

46'

R. Makhmutov← E. Yatskiy

46'

G. Uridia← A. Shabikeev

58'

D. Bakay

66'

V. Uljanovskiy← A. Amelin

70'

V. Kiselev

75'

N. Zyryanov← M. Shaymordanov

79'

I. MaksimenkovPenalty

82'

N. Zyryanov

82'

A. Tsygantsov

83'

D. Yudin← D. Bakay

83'

M. Rudnev← N. Kasatkin

83'

I. Kostylev← V. Demin

85'

N. Muromskiy← A. Geryugov

90+2'

R. Tutaev← Denis Rakhmanov

Volga

Chelyabinsk

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Aitov

46'▲R. Makhmutov←▼E. Yatskiy

46'▲G. Uridia←▼A. Shabikeev

85'▲N. Muromskiy←▼A. Geryugov

90+2'▲R. Tutaev←▼Denis Rakhmanov

Volga Ulyanovsk substitutes

MakhmutovUridiaMuromskiyTutaev

Manager: M. Salnikov

66'▲V. Uljanovskiy←▼A. Amelin

75'▲N. Zyryanov←▼M. Shaymordanov

83'▲D. Yudin←▼D. Bakay

83'▲M. Rudnev←▼N. Kasatkin

83'▲I. Kostylev←▼V. Demin

Chelyabinsk substitutes

UljanovskiyZyryanovYudinRudnevKostylev

Second League - Group 4: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–0 Chelyabinsk

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Chelyabinsk 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on April 3, 2022.

Goals: I. Maksimenkov (79' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chelyabinsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 4: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–0 Chelyabinsk