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Chelyabinsk vs Volga Ulyanovsk — League #1061 2026

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
3/23/2025League #1061League #1061 · Spring Season Gold - 4Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chelyabinsk25%
×Draw27%
Volga Ulyanovsk48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
0.94
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.40

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.14
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
1.29
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.75

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
52%
Chelyabinsk or Volga Ulyanovsk
73%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
75%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
9%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
61%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
24%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
7%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
75%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
41%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
35%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.14 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.50 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
25%
level
27%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
48%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1061: Chelyabinsk 0–0 Volga Ulyanovsk

Chelyabinsk and Volga Ulyanovsk drew 0-0 in League #1061 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Chelyabinsk.