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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chayka — First League 2018

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chayka
Chayka
4/22/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Trud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk37%
×Draw28%
Chayka35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.22
Chayka
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 68 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.86
Chayka
0.94

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
Chayka
1.57

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
65%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Chayka
72%
Draw or Chayka
63%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
16%
Chayka wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
70%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
34%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
12%
Chayka 1+ goals
70%
Chayka 2+ goals
33%
Chayka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
51%
Chayka (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Chayka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Chayka defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.22

Chayka attack 0.94 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
37%
level
28%
Chayka scores more
35%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chayka

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Chayka 2-1 in First League on April 22, 2026.

The match was played at Trud Stadium in Ulyanovsk.