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Chayka vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Chayka
Chayka
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
10/1/2023Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 12Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chayka38%
×Draw31%
Volga Ulyanovsk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.06
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.95

Chayka creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.33
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.78

allows per match

Chayka
1.11
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.78

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
68%
Chayka or Volga Ulyanovsk
69%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
62%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
15%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
65%
Chayka 2+ goals
29%
Chayka 3+ goals
9%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
61%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
25%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.33 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.78 + Chayka defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chayka scores more
38%
level
31%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
32%

Chayka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Chayka 1–0 Volga Ulyanovsk

Chayka beat Volga Ulyanovsk 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.