Volendam U21 3–2 ADO Den Haag II: Result & Stats

Volendam U21

FT

3 – 2

ADO Den Haag II

12/16/2023

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 3Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Volendam U2137%

×Draw22%

ADO Den Haag II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volendam U21Expected goals in this matchADO Den Haag II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.90

Volendam U21

1.77

ADO Den Haag II

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 55 away

1.43

creates per match

1.36

2.43

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Volendam U21

1.43

ADO Den Haag II

1.36

allows per match

Volendam U21

2.43

ADO Den Haag II

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volendam U21+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam U21 ↓

ADO Den Haag II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Volendam U21 or draw

58%

Volendam U21 or ADO Den Haag II

78%

Draw or ADO Den Haag II

63%

Winning margin

Volendam U21 wins by 2+

19%

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Volendam U21 1+ goals

83%

Volendam U21 2+ goals

53%

Volendam U21 3+ goals

26%

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals

85%

ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals

56%

ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Volendam U21 (draw refunded)

47%

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam U21 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam U21 attack 1.43 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.77

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.36 + Volendam U21 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Volendam U21 scores more

37%

level

22%

ADO Den Haag II scores more

42%

ADO Den Haag II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff