ADO Den Haag II 1–0 Volendam U21: Result & Stats

ADO Den Haag II

FT

1 – 0

Volendam U21

10/14/2023

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 10Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ADO Den Haag II41%

×Draw23%

Volendam U2136%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den Haag IIExpected goals in this matchVolendam U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.61

ADO Den Haag II

1.73

Volendam U21

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 7 away

1.89

creates per match

1.29

1.93

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II

1.89

Volendam U21

1.29

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II

1.93

Volendam U21

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Volendam U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

Volendam U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw

64%

ADO Den Haag II or Volendam U21

77%

Draw or Volendam U21

59%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+

21%

Volendam U21 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals

82%

ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals

52%

ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals

25%

Volendam U21 1+ goals

80%

Volendam U21 2+ goals

48%

Volendam U21 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)

53%

Volendam U21 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Volendam U21 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.89 + Volendam U21 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Volendam U21 attack 1.29 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more

41%

level

23%

Volendam U21 scores more

36%

ADO Den Haag II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag II vs Volendam U21

ADO Den Haag II beat Volendam U21 1-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1 in Den Haag.

ADO Den Haag II vs Volendam U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag II vs Volendam U21