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Volendam II vs SVV Scheveningen — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
CANC
14:00
SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
2/20/2021Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 21Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Volendam II39%
×Draw24%
SVV Scheveningen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
1.59
SVV Scheveningen
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 83 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.67
SVV Scheveningen
1.12

allows per match

Volendam II
1.94
SVV Scheveningen
1.52

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

SVV Scheveningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
63%
Volendam II or SVV Scheveningen
76%
Draw or SVV Scheveningen
61%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
20%
SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
80%
Volendam II 2+ goals
47%
Volendam II 3+ goals
21%
SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
78%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
45%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
52%
SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

SVV Scheveningen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.59

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.12 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volendam II scores more
39%
level
24%
SVV Scheveningen scores more
37%

Volendam II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Volendam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volendam II vs SVV Scheveningen — Match Preview

Volendam II face SVV Scheveningen on February 20, 2021 in this Tweede Divisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Volendam II host SVV Scheveningen at Kras Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.