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SVV Scheveningen vs Volendam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Volendam II
Volendam II
3/25/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 26Sportpark Houtrust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

SVV Scheveningen42%
×Draw23%
Volendam II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SVV Scheveningen
1.79
Volendam II
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 49 away

creates per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.02
Volendam II
1.59

allows per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.69
Volendam II
2.57

finishing

SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par
Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVV Scheveningen ↓

Volendam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SVV Scheveningen or draw
64%
SVV Scheveningen or Volendam II
77%
Draw or Volendam II
58%

Winning margin

SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
22%
Volendam II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
83%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
53%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
26%
Volendam II 1+ goals
81%
Volendam II 2+ goals
49%
Volendam II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
54%
Volendam II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVV Scheveningen at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.69 · 84 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.02 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Volendam II attack 1.59 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SVV Scheveningen scores more
42%
level
23%
Volendam II scores more
36%

SVV Scheveningen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SVV Scheveningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: SVV Scheveningen 2–1 Volendam II

SVV Scheveningen beat Volendam II 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Houtrust in Den Haag.