Volendam II 1–2 SVV Scheveningen: Result & Stats

Volendam II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

SVV Scheveningen

I. El Kadiri 38'

T. Peters 90+1'

C. Amatkarijo 45+1'

2/15/2020

Tweede Divisie · Round 22Kras Stadion (Volendam)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Volendam II37%

×Draw24%

SVV Scheveningen39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volendam IIExpected goals in this matchSVV Scheveningen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.57

Volendam II

1.52

SVV Scheveningen

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 81 away

1.55

creates per match

1.15

2.00

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Volendam II

1.55

SVV Scheveningen

1.15

allows per match

Volendam II

2.00

SVV Scheveningen

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par

SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

SVV Scheveningen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw

61%

Volendam II or SVV Scheveningen

76%

Draw or SVV Scheveningen

63%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+

18%

SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals

78%

Volendam II 2+ goals

45%

Volendam II 3+ goals

20%

SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals

79%

SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals

46%

SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)

49%

SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

SVV Scheveningen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.49 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.55 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.15 + Volendam II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volendam II scores more

37%

level

24%

SVV Scheveningen scores more

39%

SVV Scheveningen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SVV Scheveningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

I. El Kadiri

45+1'

C. Amatkarijo

55'

L. Maloney← I. El Kadiri

61'

S. Kramer← B. Plat

74'

J. Kruiver← S. Ben Sallam

77'

T. Peters← B. Rog

84'

N. Haddadi← L. Schwiebbe

89'

S. El Moussaoui← R. van der Putten

90+1'

T. Peters↳ M. de Vlugt

Volendam

SVV

20

5

3

12

6

▼

Schwiebbe

7

A

Vlugt

23

▼

Rog

14

Jong

10

Aldoğan

19

▼

Putten

31

⚽

1

2

4

5

3

▼

Plat

10

▼

8

6

9

11

⚽

▼

Kadiri

7

Johnson

Manager: B. Smit

55'▲L. Maloney←▼I. El Kadiri

61'▲S. Kramer←▼B. Plat

74'▲J. Kruiver←▼S. Ben Sallam

Volendam II substitutes

17Maloney14Kramer13Kruiver15Panka12Blel18Lee16Lauwers

Manager: J. Blok

77'▲T. Peters←▼B. Rog

84'▲N. Haddadi←▼L. Schwiebbe

89'▲S. El Moussaoui←▼R. van der Putten

SVV Scheveningen substitutes

9Peters22Haddadi4Moussaoui1Bénard15Ree