Volendam II 1–3 Spakenburg: Result & Stats

Volendam II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Spakenburg

9/7/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 6Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Volendam II37%

×Draw22%

Spakenburg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volendam IIExpected goals in this matchSpakenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.86

Volendam II

1.75

Spakenburg

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 101 away

1.67

creates per match

1.79

1.94

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Volendam II

1.67

Spakenburg

1.79

allows per match

Volendam II

1.94

Spakenburg

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par

Spakenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

Spakenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw

59%

Volendam II or Spakenburg

78%

Draw or Spakenburg

63%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+

19%

Spakenburg wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals

83%

Volendam II 2+ goals

52%

Volendam II 3+ goals

25%

Spakenburg 1+ goals

84%

Spakenburg 2+ goals

55%

Spakenburg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)

47%

Spakenburg (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

Spakenburg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.82 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + Spakenburg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Spakenburg attack 1.79 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Volendam II scores more

37%

level

22%

Spakenburg scores more

41%

Spakenburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff