Spakenburg 2–2 Volendam II: Result & Stats

Spakenburg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Volendam II

8/21/2021

Tweede Divisie · Round 1Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Spakenburg57%

×Draw20%

Volendam II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpakenburgExpected goals in this matchVolendam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.43

Spakenburg

2.33

Volendam II

1.43

Spakenburg creates 63% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 49 away

2.10

creates per match

1.59

1.26

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Spakenburg

2.10

Volendam II

1.59

allows per match

Spakenburg

1.26

Volendam II

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spakenburg+0.00on par

Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spakenburg ↓

Volendam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Spakenburg or draw

77%

Spakenburg or Volendam II

80%

Draw or Volendam II

43%

Winning margin

Spakenburg wins by 2+

36%

Volendam II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spakenburg 1+ goals

90%

Spakenburg 2+ goals

67%

Spakenburg 3+ goals

41%

Volendam II 1+ goals

76%

Volendam II 2+ goals

42%

Volendam II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Spakenburg (draw refunded)

71%

Volendam II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spakenburg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spakenburg attack 2.10 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.33

Volendam II attack 1.59 + Spakenburg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Spakenburg scores more

57%

level

20%

Volendam II scores more

23%

Spakenburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff