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Volendam II vs Koninklijke HFC — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
8/27/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 2Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Volendam II38%
×Draw23%
Koninklijke HFC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
1.62
Koninklijke HFC
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 99 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.67
Koninklijke HFC
1.34

allows per match

Volendam II
1.94
Koninklijke HFC
1.57

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

Koninklijke HFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
61%
Volendam II or Koninklijke HFC
77%
Draw or Koninklijke HFC
62%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
19%
Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
80%
Volendam II 2+ goals
48%
Volendam II 3+ goals
22%
Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
81%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
49%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
49%
Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volendam II scores more
38%
level
23%
Koninklijke HFC scores more
39%

Koninklijke HFC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volendam II vs Koninklijke HFC

Volendam II beat Koninklijke HFC 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.