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Koninklijke HFC vs Volendam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
CANC
13:30
Volendam II
Volendam II
5/1/2021Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 31Sportpark Spanjaardslaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Koninklijke HFC54%
×Draw21%
Volendam II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koninklijke HFC
2.04
Volendam II
1.31

Koninklijke HFC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 49 away

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.51
Volendam II
1.59

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.02
Volendam II
2.57

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par
Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

Volendam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw
76%
Koninklijke HFC or Volendam II
79%
Draw or Volendam II
46%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
32%
Volendam II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
87%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
60%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
33%
Volendam II 1+ goals
73%
Volendam II 2+ goals
38%
Volendam II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
69%
Volendam II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.51 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Volendam II attack 1.59 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more
54%
level
21%
Volendam II scores more
24%

Koninklijke HFC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Koninklijke HFC face Volendam II (Tweede Divisie)

Tweede Divisie returns with Koninklijke HFC hosting Volendam II. Match starts May 1, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Koninklijke HFC host Volendam II at Sportpark Spanjaardslaan.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.