Volendam II 3–6 Koninklijke HFC: Result & Stats

Volendam II

FT

3 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Koninklijke HFC

M. Eerdhuijzen 89'

B. Plat 70'

Y. Blel 53'

F. van der Linden 84', 29'

K. Tadmine 76', 60'

V. Volkert 65'

M. Eerdhuijzen 33' (OG)

10/26/2019

Tweede Divisie · Round 9Kras Stadion (Volendam)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Volendam II35%

×Draw23%

Koninklijke HFC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volendam IIExpected goals in this matchKoninklijke HFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.68

Volendam II

1.54

Koninklijke HFC

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 98 away

1.55

creates per match

1.35

2.00

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Volendam II

1.55

Koninklijke HFC

1.35

allows per match

Volendam II

2.00

Koninklijke HFC

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

Koninklijke HFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw

59%

Volendam II or Koninklijke HFC

77%

Draw or Koninklijke HFC

65%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+

17%

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals

79%

Volendam II 2+ goals

45%

Volendam II 3+ goals

20%

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals

81%

Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals

50%

Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)

46%

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.54 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.55 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.35 + Volendam II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Volendam II scores more

35%

level

23%

Koninklijke HFC scores more

41%

Koninklijke HFC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

F. van der Linden↳ S. van Huffel

33'

M. EerdhuijzenOwn goal

46'

K. van Gasteren← D. Panka

53'

Y. Blel↳ M. Eerdhuijzen

60'

K. Tadmine

65'

V. Volkert↳ S. van Huffel

69'

V. van Monfort← Y. Blel

70'

B. Plat↳ K. van Gasteren

76'

L. Dekkers← L. Weistra

76'

J. Donald← K. Tadmine

76'

K. Tadmine

83'

S. Kramer← R. Tol

84'

J. Sam-Sin← P. Kok

84'

F. van der Linden↳ J. Donald

89'

M. Eerdhuijzen↳ I. El Kadiri

Volendam

Koninklijke

22

Boks

21

▼

Kok

5

⚽

18

16

14

15

▼

Weistra

10

Lewis

17

A

Huffel

9

⚽2

▼

Tadmine

13

⚽2

Linden

1

Lauwers

3

⚽🥅A

Eerdhuijz

5

James

2

⚽

4

6

8

10

▼

Tol

9

⚽

▼

Blel

11

A

Kadiri

7

▼

Panka

Manager: B. Smit

46'▲K. van Gasteren←▼D. Panka

69'▲V. van Monfort←▼Y. Blel

83'▲S. Kramer←▼R. Tol

Volendam II substitutes

14Gasteren15Monfort12Kramer17Hing18Lee16Zoetebier

Manager: G. Tamerus

76'▲L. Dekkers←▼L. Weistra

76'▲J. Donald←▼K. Tadmine

84'▲J. Sam-Sin←▼P. Kok

Koninklijke HFC substitutes

23Dekkers11Donald8Sam-Sin1Rossum25Kaagman27Kaychohi3Wilffert