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Volendam II vs GVVV Veenendaal — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
CANC
00:00
GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
3/21/2020Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 26Kras Stadion (Volendam)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Volendam II39%
×Draw23%
GVVV Veenendaal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
1.71
GVVV Veenendaal
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 85 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.60
GVVV Veenendaal
1.35

allows per match

Volendam II
1.98
GVVV Veenendaal
1.82

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
62%
Volendam II or GVVV Veenendaal
77%
Draw or GVVV Veenendaal
61%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
20%
GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
82%
Volendam II 2+ goals
51%
Volendam II 3+ goals
24%
GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
81%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
50%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
51%
GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.98 · 48 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.82 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.60 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.35 + Volendam II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volendam II scores more
39%
level
23%
GVVV Veenendaal scores more
38%

Volendam II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Volendam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Volendam II host GVVV Veenendaal

March 21, 2020: Volendam II take on GVVV Veenendaal in Tweede Divisie. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Volendam II host GVVV Veenendaal at Kras Stadion (Volendam).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.