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GVVV Veenendaal vs Volendam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
CANC
14:30
Volendam II
Volendam II
12/12/2020Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 15Sportpark Panhuis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

GVVV Veenendaal51%
×Draw21%
Volendam II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVVV Veenendaal
2.17
Volendam II
1.57

GVVV Veenendaal creates 38% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 49 away

creates per match

GVVV Veenendaal
1.76
Volendam II
1.59

allows per match

GVVV Veenendaal
1.55
Volendam II
2.57

finishing

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par
Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVVV Veenendaal ↓

Volendam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

GVVV Veenendaal or draw
72%
GVVV Veenendaal or Volendam II
79%
Draw or Volendam II
49%

Winning margin

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
30%
Volendam II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
89%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
64%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
36%
Volendam II 1+ goals
79%
Volendam II 2+ goals
46%
Volendam II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
65%
Volendam II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVVV Veenendaal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.76 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.17

Volendam II attack 1.59 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

GVVV Veenendaal scores more
51%
level
21%
Volendam II scores more
28%

GVVV Veenendaal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GVVV Veenendaal face Volendam II (Tweede Divisie)

Tweede Divisie returns with GVVV Veenendaal hosting Volendam II. Match starts December 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

GVVV Veenendaal host Volendam II at Sportpark Panhuis.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.