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Volendam II vs Excelsior Maassluis — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
CANC
14:00
Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
3/6/2021Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 23Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Volendam II46%
×Draw22%
Excelsior Maassluis32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
1.88
Excelsior Maassluis
1.55

Volendam II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 104 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.67
Excelsior Maassluis
1.16

allows per match

Volendam II
1.94
Excelsior Maassluis
2.09

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
68%
Volendam II or Excelsior Maassluis
78%
Draw or Excelsior Maassluis
54%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
25%
Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
85%
Volendam II 2+ goals
56%
Volendam II 3+ goals
29%
Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
79%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
46%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
59%
Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.88

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Volendam II scores more
46%
level
22%
Excelsior Maassluis scores more
32%

Volendam II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Volendam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volendam II vs Excelsior Maassluis — Match Preview

Volendam II face Excelsior Maassluis on March 6, 2021 in this Tweede Divisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Volendam II host Excelsior Maassluis at Kras Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.