Excelsior Maassluis 3–2 Volendam II: Result & Stats

Excelsior Maassluis

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Volendam II

11/20/2021

Tweede Divisie · Round 13Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Excelsior Maassluis50%

×Draw22%

Volendam II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior MaassluisExpected goals in this matchVolendam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.47

Excelsior Maassluis

2.01

Volendam II

1.47

Excelsior Maassluis creates 37% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 49 away

1.46

creates per match

1.59

1.34

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Excelsior Maassluis

1.46

Volendam II

1.59

allows per match

Excelsior Maassluis

1.34

Volendam II

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Maassluis ↓

Volendam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Excelsior Maassluis or draw

72%

Excelsior Maassluis or Volendam II

78%

Draw or Volendam II

50%

Winning margin

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+

29%

Volendam II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals

87%

Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals

59%

Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals

32%

Volendam II 1+ goals

77%

Volendam II 2+ goals

43%

Volendam II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)

64%

Volendam II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Maassluis at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 104 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.46 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.01

Volendam II attack 1.59 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Excelsior Maassluis scores more

50%

level

22%

Volendam II scores more

28%

Excelsior Maassluis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Excelsior Maassluis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff