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Volendam II vs ASWH — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
CANC
14:00
ASWH
ASWH
12/5/2020Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 14Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Volendam II54%
×Draw21%
ASWH25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
2.15
ASWH
1.43

Volendam II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 32 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.67
ASWH
0.91

allows per match

Volendam II
1.94
ASWH
2.63

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
ASWH+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

ASWH →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
75%
Volendam II or ASWH
79%
Draw or ASWH
46%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
32%
ASWH wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
88%
Volendam II 2+ goals
63%
Volendam II 3+ goals
36%
ASWH 1+ goals
76%
ASWH 2+ goals
42%
ASWH 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
68%
ASWH (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

ASWH away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + ASWH defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.15

ASWH attack 0.91 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Volendam II scores more
54%
level
21%
ASWH scores more
25%

Volendam II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Volendam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volendam II face ASWH (Tweede Divisie)

Tweede Divisie returns with Volendam II hosting ASWH. Match starts December 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Volendam II host ASWH at Kras Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.