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ASWH vs Volendam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

ASWH
ASWH
CANC
13:30
Volendam II
Volendam II
5/15/2021Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 33Sportpark Schildman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ASWH44%
×Draw21%
Volendam II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASWH
2.02
Volendam II
1.78

ASWH creates 13% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

creates per match

ASWH
1.47
Volendam II
1.59

allows per match

ASWH
1.97
Volendam II
2.57

finishing

ASWH+0.00on par
Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASWH ↓

Volendam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

ASWH or draw
65%
ASWH or Volendam II
79%
Draw or Volendam II
56%

Winning margin

ASWH wins by 2+
25%
Volendam II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

ASWH 1+ goals
87%
ASWH 2+ goals
60%
ASWH 3+ goals
33%
Volendam II 1+ goals
83%
Volendam II 2+ goals
53%
Volendam II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

ASWH (draw refunded)
56%
Volendam II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASWH at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASWH attack 1.47 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.02

Volendam II attack 1.59 + ASWH defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ASWH scores more
44%
level
21%
Volendam II scores more
35%

ASWH at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ASWH will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASWH face Volendam II (Tweede Divisie)

Tweede Divisie returns with ASWH hosting Volendam II. Match starts May 15, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ASWH host Volendam II at Sportpark Schildman.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.