Volendam II vs AFC Amsterdam — Tweede Divisie 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 49+ matches
Volendam II32%
AFC Amsterdam45%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AFC Amsterdam creates 21% more chances
Season form · 49 home / 100 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Volendam II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches
AFC Amsterdam away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.34 · 100 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Volendam II attack 1.67 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50
AFC Amsterdam attack 1.68 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
AFC Amsterdam at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Katwijk
HHCAFC Amsterdam
Rijnsburgse Boys
Ijsselmeervogels
Kozakken Boys
Spakenburg
Koninklijke HFC
De Treffers
Noordwijk
Sparta Rotterdam II
Excelsior Maassluis
GVVV Veenendaal
Quick Boys
SVV Scheveningen
TECVolendam II
ASWHIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Volendam II host AFC Amsterdam on Saturday, 15 April 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the Tweede Divisie 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Volendam II vs AFC Amsterdam
AFC Amsterdam beat Volendam II 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on April 15, 2023.
The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.