AFC Amsterdam 5–1 Volendam II: Result & Stats

AFC Amsterdam

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Volendam II

10/30/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 12Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

AFC Amsterdam56%

×Draw20%

Volendam II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC AmsterdamExpected goals in this matchVolendam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.43

AFC Amsterdam

2.27

Volendam II

1.43

AFC Amsterdam creates 59% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 49 away

1.97

creates per match

1.59

1.26

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

AFC Amsterdam

1.97

Volendam II

1.59

allows per match

AFC Amsterdam

1.26

Volendam II

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Amsterdam ↓

Volendam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

AFC Amsterdam or draw

76%

AFC Amsterdam or Volendam II

80%

Draw or Volendam II

44%

Winning margin

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+

35%

Volendam II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals

90%

AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals

66%

AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals

39%

Volendam II 1+ goals

76%

Volendam II 2+ goals

42%

Volendam II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)

70%

Volendam II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Amsterdam at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.97 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.27

Volendam II attack 1.59 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AFC Amsterdam scores more

56%

level

20%

Volendam II scores more

24%

AFC Amsterdam at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff