Vojvodina 3–3 Radnicki NIS: Result & Stats

Vojvodina

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Radnicki NIS

9/28/2024

Super Liga · Round 10Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Vojvodina48%

×Draw26%

Radnicki NIS26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VojvodinaExpected goals in this matchRadnicki NIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.02

Vojvodina

1.50

Radnicki NIS

1.02

Vojvodina creates 47% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 148 away

1.57

creates per match

1.01

1.02

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Vojvodina

1.57

Radnicki NIS

1.01

allows per match

Vojvodina

1.02

Radnicki NIS

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vojvodina+0.00on par

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina ↓

Radnicki NIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vojvodina or draw

74%

Vojvodina or Radnicki NIS

74%

Draw or Radnicki NIS

52%

Winning margin

Vojvodina wins by 2+

24%

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1+ goals

78%

Vojvodina 2+ goals

44%

Vojvodina 3+ goals

19%

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

64%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

27%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina (draw refunded)

65%

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.43 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina attack 1.57 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + Vojvodina defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vojvodina scores more

48%

level

26%

Radnicki NIS scores more

26%

Vojvodina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vojvodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff