Vojvodina 1–0 Jedinstvo Ub: Result & Stats

Vojvodina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jedinstvo Ub

B. Yusuf 73'

3/9/2025

Super Liga · Round 27Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vojvodina63%

×Draw21%

Jedinstvo Ub16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VojvodinaExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Ub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.90

Vojvodina

2.00

Jedinstvo Ub

0.90

Vojvodina creates 122% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 19 away

1.59

creates per match

0.74

1.05

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Vojvodina

1.59

Jedinstvo Ub

0.74

allows per match

Vojvodina

1.05

Jedinstvo Ub

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vojvodina+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vojvodina or draw

84%

Vojvodina or Jedinstvo Ub

79%

Draw or Jedinstvo Ub

37%

Winning margin

Vojvodina wins by 2+

38%

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1+ goals

86%

Vojvodina 2+ goals

59%

Vojvodina 3+ goals

32%

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

59%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

23%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina (draw refunded)

79%

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.05 · 143 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina attack 1.59 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.00

Jedinstvo Ub attack 0.74 + Vojvodina defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vojvodina scores more

63%

level

21%

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

16%

Vojvodina at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vojvodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

D. Rosić

Vojvodina · G

7.9

Match Events

9'

Strahinja Rakić

39'

Veljko Kijevčanin

55'

Stefan Golubović

67'

V. Savićević← M. Mladenović

67'

S. Bukinac← Lucas Barros

73'

B. Yusuf↳ S. Bukinac

75'

N. Doderović← R. Denzell

75'

U. Savković← S. Golubović

77'

77'

89'

90+1'

90'

M. Veličković← D. Kokanović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VojvodinaJedinstvo

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots11

4Corners5

15Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots11

2On Target5

4Off Target3

4Blocked3

5Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

407Total Passes322

316Accurate Passes240

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0