Jedinstvo Ub 1–1 Vojvodina: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Ub

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vojvodina

D. Jevtić 28'

M. Veličković 84'

10/19/2024

Super Liga · Round 12Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub30%

×Draw26%

Vojvodina44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo UbExpected goals in this matchVojvodina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.44

Jedinstvo Ub

1.13

Vojvodina

1.44

Vojvodina creates 27% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 141 away

1.00

creates per match

1.37

1.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.00

Vojvodina

1.37

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.50

Vojvodina

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Vojvodina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Vojvodina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw

56%

Jedinstvo Ub or Vojvodina

74%

Draw or Vojvodina

70%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

12%

Vojvodina wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

68%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

31%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

11%

Vojvodina 1+ goals

76%

Vojvodina 2+ goals

42%

Vojvodina 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

40%

Vojvodina (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Vojvodina away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.25 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.00 + Vojvodina defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Vojvodina attack 1.37 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

30%

level

26%

Vojvodina scores more

44%

Vojvodina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vojvodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

V. Jovanović

Jedinstvo Ub · G

7.5

Match Events

-5'

Siniša Tanjga

28'

D. Jevtić

46'

M. Butean← L. Nikolić

46'

M. Veličković← A. Radulović

46'

Depú← M. Poletanović

54'

Njegoš Petrović

61'

D. Miladinović← M. Mitrović

61'

J. Stojanović← T. Pérez

64'

Danilo Miladinović

67'

Lucas Barros← S. Đorđević

76'

S. Medojević← V. Savićević

78'

E. Ceesay← V. Damjanić

83'

Richardson Kwaku Denzell

84'

M. Veličković

85'

P. Ferreira← S. Rakić

85'

J. Arana← D. Jevtić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JedinstvoVojvodina

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots20

5Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots20

3On Target7

2Off Target8

4Blocked5

7Inside Box12

2Outside Box8

Passing

35%Possession65%

285Total Passes514

181Accurate Passes417

64%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2